As winter approaches, a familiar household expense is becoming a political problem. Heating oil now costs more than $6 a gallon nationally, up from about $3.50 a year ago, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration — and in the northern states that depend on it most, the bill for staying warm is shaping races that could decide control of the Senate.
The issue is most acute in Maine, New Hampshire and Alaska, all of which have competitive Senate races on November 3. Reuters interviewed 15 voters, candidates and strategists in those states and found heating costs emerging as one of the most potent issues of the campaign.
A lifelong Republican changes his vote
In Kingston, New Hampshire, 80-year-old Rick Russman spent five decades as a Republican. This year, he told Reuters, he will vote for Democrat Chris Pappas in one of the country’s most closely watched Senate races.
For Russman, the decision is practical, not abstract. He said he will rely on a wood stove to help heat his home this winter rather than heating oil alone. “Fuel that costs more than $6 a gallon is a huge expense,” he said.
His story captures a wider shift. Voters who might once have voted on party loyalty are now voting on the price of staying warm, and many of them connect that price to the war with Iran, which Democrats argue has disrupted global diesel supplies. Diesel is similar to heating oil, and diesel prices have risen to a record high above $6.50 a gallon.
What Washington has done so far
Reuters was first to report this week that the U.S. Energy Department released heating oil from reserves in the Northeast. When asked about criticism that Trump administration policies had driven heating costs higher, the White House pointed to that release.
But an analyst told Reuters the release was unlikely to affect prices in a meaningful way, and the underlying pressures remain: tight diesel supplies, higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict, and a winter that has not yet begun.
Why it matters for the Senate
The political stakes are high because the party in power is usually held responsible for household costs, and heating oil is one cost voters cannot avoid. Lance Dutson, a Republican strategist in Maine, told Reuters the dynamic is straightforward: voters blame the party in charge when prices rise, and in this case many trace the increase directly to the Iran war.
Nearly 80 percent of Americans blame Trump policies for higher costs, including energy, according to an October Reuters/Ipsos poll. That finding helps explain why Democratic candidates have worked to tie heating costs to the administration’s foreign policy, while Republican candidates have struggled to separate the two.
A winter still to come
The hardest months are still ahead. Households that heat with oil typically buy most of their fuel during the coldest part of the year, so the full cost of this winter will only become clear in the months after the election. But voters are already making decisions based on the prices they see now — and on the wood stoves, blankets and backup plans they are preparing for the months ahead.
Sources: Reuters, “As winter nears, heating oil emerges as hurdle for Republicans in US Senate races” (October 24, 2026); U.S. Energy Information Administration heating oil price data as reported by Reuters.
