Almost 21 million Americans have already cast their votes in this year’s midterm elections, according to the latest data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab, which tracks mail and in-person early voting nationwide. The total jumped by roughly 2 million in a single day.
Turnout is up where it matters
Election Lab founder Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida, says that on a state-by-state basis, turnout is running above both the 2022 and 2018 midterms — notable because 2018 produced the highest midterm turnout rate since 1914. In the last midterm election in 2022, nearly 122 million people voted in total, so 21 million early ballots already represent a large share of that figure. Early voting is up significantly in key battleground states.
Reading the numbers carefully
Experts caution that early voting is often a poor predictor of the final result. Many early voters are people who would have voted on Election Day anyway. MIT political scientist Charles Stewart told NPR the surge reflects both genuine voter enthusiasm and the huge sums campaigns are spending on door-to-door efforts to get supporters to vote early.
In states that publish detailed data, Democrats are currently voting at higher rates than Republicans, and turnout is also up among unaffiliated voters. Stewart also pointed to unusually strong early activity in Maine and Iowa, two states that have not recently been top battlegrounds, as a sign of how energized and well-funded campaigns are this cycle.
What to watch next
The real question is whether the early surge means a bigger overall electorate, or simply the same voters casting ballots sooner. Either way, campaigns now build their entire final-weeks strategy around banking votes early — and with numbers like these, both parties will be pushing even harder before Election Day.
Sources: NPR reporting (October 23, 2026) citing University of Florida Election Lab early-voting data; MIT Election Data and Science Lab commentary via NPR.