President Donald Trump has cancelled two weekend campaign rallies and will instead campaign by phone, as both parties enter the final four days before midterm elections that will decide control of Congress.
A change of plan in the final weekend
The Republican National Committee announced on Thursday, October 29, that Trump would no longer travel to Salina, Kansas, on Saturday or Dubuque, Iowa, on Sunday. Instead, the president will take part in a series of telephone rallies across nearly 20 states before Election Day on Tuesday, November 3, according to the committee and MAGA Inc., the campaign funding group aligned with Trump.
Trump told reporters he did not feel he had to travel to Kansas, where Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces an unexpectedly competitive challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton.
Still on the road on Friday
On Thursday he campaigned in Rock Hill, South Carolina, for Republican Senator Darline Graham, who faces Democratic challenger Annie Andrews in a closely watched Senate race. On Friday he is scheduled to hold a rally at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida, a state he won handily in 2024 but where early voting has tilted toward Democrats, according to Reuters.
What the final polls say
With four days to go, Democrats lead in the national polling average. RealClearPolling put Democrats on 51.4 percent and Republicans on 43.2 percent in the generic congressional ballot, a margin of 8.2 points. In Wisconsin, the Marquette Law School poll conducted October 14 to 22 and released on October 28 put Trump’s approval rating at 37 percent, with 61 percent disapproving.
State polls also favoured Democrats in several key Senate races. Final CNN Senate polls reported Democratic leads of six points in Texas, where James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton 49 percent to 43 percent; seven points in Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed led Republican Mike Rogers 49 percent to 42 percent; and four points each in Kansas and Maine.
Polls are not results, and small shifts in turnout could still change close contests. But the pattern helps explain the closing strategies: Democrats leaning on enthusiasm, Republicans trying to reach as many voters as possible in the final 72 hours.
More than 44 million have already voted
More than 44 million Americans had already voted as of Thursday evening, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab — less than two million short of the total early and absentee vote from the entire 2022 midterm cycle.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win back the Senate from Republicans. If they take one or both chambers, they could launch investigations into Trump’s administration and increase pressure on the president over the war in Iran, among other issues.
Alaska could leave the Senate unclear
One race could keep control of the Senate uncertain for weeks after Election Day. In Alaska, the Justice Department filed an amended lawsuit on Thursday seeking to block certification of results in the event of a narrow Republican loss in the Senate race, citing a New York Times report that Democratic operatives recruited a candidate with the same name as the Republican incumbent, Senator Dan Sullivan. Democrat Mary Peltola has denied the claim, and the dispute is now in court.
That legal fight is one of several the administration has pursued against states in the final days of the campaign, including subpoenas issued to California election officials as part of a criminal probe into alleged voting by non-citizens, according to documents seen by Reuters. Election officials around the country have told Reuters they are bracing for further legal challenges from Washington.
What to watch next
Watch the Daytona Beach rally on Friday, the telephone rallies over the weekend, and the final turnout figures: if early voting passes the 2022 total before Tuesday, it will confirm one of the highest-turnout midterms in recent memory — and the outcome may still hinge on a handful of states counting ballots after election night.
Sources: Reuters; Associated Press reporting via KXLY/WMAL; University of Florida Election Lab; RealClearPolling; Marquette Law School Poll.